Upcoming

 

  • Urbanization, Structural Transformation and Rural-Urban Disparities in China and India.
    • Speaker: Amartya Lahiri, University of British Columbia & CAFRAL
    • Date: Friday, September 15, 2017. 
    • Time: 02:30 PM
    • Venue: Seminar Room No. 2
    • Abstract

      Over the past three decades India and China have experienced rapid economic growth along with structural transformation. Underneath the overall similarity however was one significant difference: rural-urban wage gaps declined in India, but widened in China. In both countries, the majority of these wage dynamics are left unexplained by worker attributes. We formalize a two -sector-two-location model in which structural transformation and urbanization respond endogenously to productivity shocks. While the structural transformation effect widens the urban-rural wage gap, the urbanization effect reduces it, allowing the model to account for wage convergence in India and wage divergence in China. 

     

  • Coincident Indicators and Forecasting in Economics using EEDM Analysis: A Study of the IIP
    • Speaker: Manoj Pant, Jawaharlal Nehru University
    • Date: Friday, October 6, 2017. 
    • Time: 11:30 AM to 01:00 PM
    • Venue: Seminar Room No. 2
    • Abstract

      Many phenomena in natural and social sciences requires analysis of time series data to draw inferences about their possible future behavior. In Economics, time series analysis is frequently applied in the context of expected future course of economic activity, for example, movements in GDP, predicting recessionary cycles and so on. Research organisations have built huge macro models which are very data intensive and involve a lot of assumptions on elasticities and aspects of the macro economy to forecast into the long run. However, for small business organisations what is more important is short run estimation and forecasting with limited data requirements. Currently, the latter task is performed using various statistical techniques which are largely linear in approach,are dependent on the choice of the start-end period and have low statistical reliability. This study uses the EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode De-composition)  approach which is not constrained by these defects. As an illustration, the Indian IIP series is used to develop a  coincident indicator of movements in IIP which is simple to use, uses real time data and gives accurate forecasts.Key words: Time Series, Leading Indicators, Forecasting ModelsJEL Listing: C22, E32, E37, C53
  • IPR and Organization of Knowledge.
    • Speaker: Pavel Chakraborty, Jawaharlal Nehru University
    • Date: Friday, October 27, 2017. 
    • Time: 11:30 AM to 1:00 PM.
    • Venue: Seminar Room No. 2
    • Abstract
       
  • Culture & Market: A (Macroeconomic) Tale of Two Institutions.
    • Speaker: Mausumi Das, Delhi School of Economics.
    • Date: Friday, November 3, 2017. 
    • Time: 11:30 AM to 1:00 PM.
    • Venue: Seminar Room No. 2
    • Abstract

      This paper explores the macroeconomic implications of cultural transmission of occupational traits. Certain occupations in the society are associated with strong collective spirit and are delivered best by agents who are motivated towards these. The degree of motivation of an agent in turn depends on intergenerational transmission of values and beliefs, working through a socialization process with the parental generation. Through socialization, a young agents picks up some traits which makes her predisposed towards a particular occupation. The acquired cultural trait interacts with the market wages to determine the actual occupational choice. The occupational choice of the parent in turn affects the cultural transmission process by limiting the time available for socialization with their children. We show that the two-way interaction between culture and market may generate complex dynamics resulting in endogenous fluctuations in output accompanied by oscillatory growth. 

    To schedule a seminar, send an email to mbishnu [at] isid.ac.in. Our regular seminar slot is on Fridays at 11:30 AM. It is usually held in Seminar Room 2. If you are coming from outside and not familiar with the location of ISI, find ISI on Google map here. ISI Delhi is also connected by Metro Line. The closest station is “HAUZ KHAS” (about 2.5 KM from ISI Delhi. The usual fare in an auto-rickshaw (‘tuk-tuk’) is Rs 40-50). Here is a map of Delhi Metro: Delhi Metro Map – Hauz Khas station is on the Yellow Line of this map. The official Delhi Metro site is here: Delhi Metro.