Discussion Papers in Economics

Planning Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi

#08-03:

"The "V-Factor": Distribution, Timing and Correlates of the the Great Indian Growth Turnaround."
By Chetan Ghate and Stephen Wright

Abstract

The ratio of Indian to US per capita output over the past 45 years has displayed a distinctive "V"-shaped pattern. We show that a strikingly similar V-shaped pattern is visible not just in aggregate output figures, but also as the primary determinant of long-term movements in the cross-sectional distribution within the All-India total, at both sectoral and state output levels. We also carry out preliminary investigations of correlates of the "VFactor", using a new panel data set for Indian states from 1960 to 2005 that extends and encompasses all previous datasets relevant to macroeconomic analysis of the Indian states.

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