The important interaction between trade and climate policy has sharpened the case for a coalition of countries that commit to price industrial emissions at home and use border adjustments to apply a carbon price to imports from nonmembers (1). The paper proposes a coalition that initially targets four emissions-intensive industries—iron and steel, aluminum, cement, and nitrogen fertilizers (hereafter, fertilizers)—which together account for roughly 20% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (2). Using plant-level microdata and trade modeling, it examines two institutional designs that have emerged in policy discussions: a uniform price regime with a common carbon price floor and a graduated price regime with income-tiered floors (3). The papers shows that a first-wave coalition could cut global GHG emissions by roughly 1.5% [2.0% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions] relative to 2023 levels while keeping industrial output impacts small, limiting leakage, and raising almost $200 billion per year in public revenues.
Publication
“Building a scalable climate coalition for heavy industry”
- Science
- Volume 393, Issue 6815
- # Climate
- Catherine Wolfram
- , Joseph Aldy
- , Candido Bracher
- , Gregory Casey
- , et. all